Washington, D.C. — Turn Forward today announced the release of a new independent analysis by consultants at Charles River Associates (CRA) evaluating how the United States can meet rapidly growing electricity demand while maintaining reliability and affordability. When paired with dispatchable resources, the report finds that offshore wind enhances grid diversity and resilience, helping address growing reliability challenges as demand surges from energy-intensive sectors such as data centers, manufacturing, and electrification.

The analysis, titled “The Contribution of Offshore Wind to Grid Reliability and Resource Adequacy,” calls for added generation capacity from multiple resource types to avoid grid reliability issues that result in higher ratepayer costs, diminished load growth, or both. It cites offshore wind as a scalable option that can help deliver power during periods of high system stress—evenings after sunset and very cold days when natural gas systems face increased outage risks and constrained fuel supply.

According to the report, “[Offshore wind] provides an additional and complementary pathway to add new generation with high capacity accreditation and strong reliability contributions to the grid. … Most importantly, OSW has strong performance during key periods of emerging grid stress and relatively steady output year-round. Also, it has the ability to be built at scale and brings locational advantages due to its siting near coastal load centers where new generation is otherwise difficult to build.”

Turn Forward Executive Director Hillary Bright commented, “This analysis demonstrates that a diverse mix of generation sources—including offshore wind—is essential for ensuring a strong electricity grid as demand surges and reliability risks mount. As concerns grow over our ability to maintain reliability and build new capacity in the near term, it’s clear we need offshore wind to support natural gas and other key power sources that are already working around the clock to keep our economy online.”

According to the authors, maintaining reliability will require a diverse mix of resources including natural gas, storage, nuclear, demand response, and renewables. Across U.S. electricity markets, offshore wind receives among the highest capacity accreditation and reliability contribution values of any renewable resource.  In some regions, it achieves reliability contribution values that are comparable to, or exceed, certain dispatchable technologies.

“No single resource can adequately address our nation’s growing electricity supply dilemma,” Bright concluded. “With demand increasing at a pace we haven’t seen in decades, we need an ‘everything-that-works’ approach to safeguard U.S. energy security and global competitiveness. That means maximizing reliable, affordable power from every resource that can deliver when and where it’s needed most.”

The new report was released through Turn Forward’s Energy Research Exchange, a newly launched initiative designed to supply credible, nonpartisan analysis to address today’s most pressing energy questions. Future publications will continue to examine the intersection of reliability and affordability across the U.S. energy mix. 

For more information and to download the report, click here.

Key findings from the report include:

  • Growing Reliability and Affordability Risks: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) projects national load growth of roughly 120 GW this decade, driven by data centers, manufacturing, and electrification, while net new supply additions lag behind—placing real pressure on the grid to maintain reliability and affordability.
  • Seasonal Shifts: Grid risk is shifting from summer to winter as heating electrification accelerates and gas supply faces infrastructure constraints and fuel competition from building heating.
  • Offshore Wind’s Contribution: OSW achieves among the highest ELCC values of any renewable—roughly twice that of solar, for example—and provides steady nighttime and winter output aligned with emerging risk periods.
  • Complementary Role: OSW generation complements gas and storage, helping stabilize portfolios and reduce fuel concentration risk.
  • Scalability Near Load Centers: Offshore wind can deliver capacity directly into coastal urban regions where siting new onshore plants or transmission is difficult.
  • Dynamic Accreditation: ELCC values for offshore wind are expected to decline only after several gigawatts have been added successfully—reflecting the resource’s success in shifting periods of system risk away from the most critical hours, not a loss of performance.
  • Legacy technologies may not be enough: In regions experiencing rapid load growth and constrained infrastructure—particularly along the coasts—new natural gas, solar, storage, and onshore wind additions may be insufficient to meet demand, given supply-chain and siting limitations. While new infrastructure investments are expected to ease constraints and supply chains should stabilize over time, these buildouts may not advance quickly enough to match the pace of projected load growth.

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Turn Forward is an independent, non-profit advocacy organization dedicated to advancing an ambitious vision for American offshore wind power that meets today’s economic, energy, and environmental challenges.

For media inquiries, please reach out to media@turnforward.org.